[saymaListserv] Politics and Economics

[Janet Minshall]

Hi SAYMA Friend, I don't recognize your e-mail address so I cannot 
call you by name, but thanks for the response.  Yes, Stan Becker is 
the person in Baltimore YM who is a demographer/medical doctor at 
Johns Hopkins University and has spoken at SAYMA yearly meeting about 
population concerns. Indeed, Stan was a member of SAYMA and Atlanta 
Meeting before he moved to Baltimore.  And yes, Stan has replied on 
this topic twice.  He was on the "To" list of recipients of my e-mail 
messages.

It is the expected effects of a dramatic population decline that I 
have been exploring.  I had, in the '70s before I knew Stan, worked 
on a grant from Johns Hopkins to encourage population control. 
Knowing Stan from my meeting, he was the first person I spoke with 
several years ago about this.  I had heard a panel discussion on 
C-SPAN in which representatives of the military and the security 
agencies were projecting widespread panic and violence which would 
erupt as a steep population decline and related economic dislocation 
occurred. The panel's answer to that projection was to recommend 
increasing the size and scope of the military and the security 
agencies (which has since happened under the Bush Administration). 
When I told Stan about that panel discussion and their 
recommendation, he said he had no idea where their population 
projection came from. I began then to look for articles or other 
sources that would explain what I'd heard. I found out that many 
demographers were, indeed, projecting a sharp drop in population 
after a brief period (fifty to 100 years) of upward momentum, meaning 
population would rise more and more slowly until it came to a point 
of equilibrium (as many births as deaths), and then begin to decline. 
The short article by Scott Elder in National Geographic, the 
Sept.2003 issue, was the first one I found in a popular, non-academic 
journal that addressed both the problem and its likely consequences.
			 Best Regards, Janet Minshall



 From vmbra at aol.com

>As I understand it, US population is expected to DOUBLE by the end 
>of the century, though its composition will be different from the 
>current mix.  Before getting overly concerned with population 
>declines in Europe, it might be well to examine the global picture. 
> Baltimore YM has a Friend who is an expert in international 
>population who might be a good resource.  I'm blocking his last name 
>right now, but I think it's Stan Becker.It is and he has




>
>cps


-- 
Janet's new e mail address is :  jhminshall at comcast.net
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